The Bank of Canada held its overnight target rate unchanged at 2.25% in its January 2026 meeting, aligned with market expectations and its earlier guidance, and noted that the current policy remains appropriate given the Bank's baseline economic outlook. Still, recent tariff threats from US President Trump reignited concerns of trade disruptions and drove the Governing Council to warn of uncertainty, potentially warranting a an adjustment in monetary policy in either direction. The central bank loosely maintained their economic projections from October's Monetary Policy Report, with the Canadian GDP expected to rise over 1% this year and 1.5% next year. Additionally, CPI inflation is expected to remain close to the 2% target as trade-related cost pressures are offset by excess supply in the aggregate.
