The Bank of Israel cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4% in January, marking a second consecutive cut at successive meetings. Headline inflation eased to a four-year low of 2.4% in November 2025, staying within the government’s 1%–3% target range for the fourth straight month, with expectations anchored near the midpoint. Economic activity continues to expand, supported by credit card spending, exports, and high-tech fundraising, while the risk premium remains close to pre-war levels. Labor market tightness has eased, with higher participation and employment rates and lower reserve-duty absenteeism. The shekel strengthened sharply against the US dollar and euro, lifting the nominal effective exchange rate. The Research Department forecasts GDP growth of 5.2% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, with inflation easing to 1.7% and 2%, respectively. Policymakers flagged risks from geopolitical uncertainty, potential price pressures from rising demand, and fiscal developments.
