The National Bank of Kazakhstan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 18% on January 23, 2026, in line with market expectations, citing persistently high inflation and strong domestic demand. Headline inflation reached 12.3% at the end of 2025, in line with the central bank's forecasts, largely driven by food prices, while monthly inflation rose 0.9% in December and core inflation remained elevated. Inflation expectations increased, with households projecting 14.7% over the next year and market participants anticipating 10.8% for 2026. While a stronger tenge and tighter financial conditions have supported disinflation, upside risks linger, including the effects of fuel price liberalization, tariff reforms, tax changes, and the planned quasi-fiscal stimulus. The central bank indicated the policy rate is likely to stay at its current level through the first half of 2026. The next rate decision is due on March 6, 2026.
