The National Bank of Romania held its benchmark interest rate steady at 6.50% in its first policy meeting of 2026, marking the eleventh consecutive pause and in line with market expectations. Headline inflation slightly eased to 9.7% in December 2025 but remains far above the 1.5–3.5% target, with core inflation continuing to rise. GDP growth rebounded to 1.7% year-on-year in Q3, supported by investment, private consumption, and net exports, though domestic demand remains weak and Q4 is expected to stagnate. The labor market stayed fragile: unemployment rose to 6.1% in Q3 and fell slightly in October–November, while employment continued to decline and wage growth moderated. Financial conditions improved as interbank rates and bond yields fell, the leu strengthened, and credit growth slowed. Looking ahead, inflation is expected to gradually decline, influenced by fiscal consolidation, European fund absorption, structural reforms, and global monetary and geopolitical developments.
