Brésil Taux d'intérêt

The Central Bank of Brazil raised its Selic rate by 50bps to 14.75% in May 2025, aiming to bring inflation closer to the target. While its primary goal is price stability, the decision also seeks to reduce economic fluctuations and support full employment. Economic activity and labor market indicators continue to show dynamism, though growth is moderating and both headline and underlying inflation remain above target. Market inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, as determined by the Focus survey, remain above the target at 5.5% and 4.5%, respectively, while Copom’s inflation projection for 2026 stands at 3.6% in the reference scenario. The Committee remains cautious and ready to adjust its policy as conditions evolve. The external environment remains adverse and particularly uncertain, especially due to US trade policy, which is fueling concerns about the magnitude of the global economic slowdown, heterogeneous effects on inflation and conduct of monetary policy.